Friday, May 22, 2009
Dr. Rothman hits the bull's eye.
My colleague and friend Phil Rothman has started forecasting the weekly unemployment insurance claims numbers at the web site below. As he explains, the last six recessions have ended within 8 weeks of this series reaching its peak. This is a site worth keeping a close eye on...if this relation holds up, you'll know the recession has bottomed out and recovery has started here first.