Thursday, March 11, 2010
The recession is definitely over.
This is a graph of an econometric forecasting model that predicts the probability that we are currently in a recession (a so-called Markov model). Not, not much chance here today. For a complete listing of the probabilities of being in Recession for every month from 1967:02-2010:12 here is the excel spread sheet:
Tip o' the hat to Dr. Rothman and Dr. Jeremy Piger at University of Oregon.
Recent U.S. Recession Probabilities
Probability of Recession