Monday, January 17, 2011
Dr. Doom and Cassandras...pass the salt please.
Nouriel Roubini has been saying "the end is near" for 30 years. Sooner or later he is going to get one right. Does that mean we should hang on his every word? Hardly. Moreover, in this week's posting on the "China Bubble" some unemployed German shoe shine boy (that is his description) commented in the comment section that he has been saying that China is ready to explode for years and no one listens. It makes him feel like "Cassandra" who is pictured above. To recall, Cassandra was given the ability to see into the future by the God Apollo. Apollo gave her this gift to try and win her love. When she did not return the love, Apollo still gave her the ability to see into the future but cursed her so that no one would ever believe her.
Apparently this made her quite mad.
Well, the great Dr. Rothman passes along this excellent piece on forecasting and how we should look at all great seers of the future with a glazed eye.
I can't tell you how many people I have known at the race track that get hot and think they have it made forever in their ability to pick horses. Wait two years and see them again and they don't have a nickel to their name and they are asking if they can borrow money. It's sad but happens all too often. Next time you are at the track and some bum comes up and wants to borrow money, tell my brother it is time to come home.
Lastly, Cassandra would not have to love me. Just tell me who she's got in the pick 6 today at Gulfstream. I'll believe her. We'll split the money with Apollo.