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Friday, January 30, 2009

Riddle me this...how long before your financial comeback?


Click on the link below. It shows how long it will take to return to where you were, and at what rate of interest, for your investment portfolio values. Note that you can slide the rate of return up or down as you choose. Move the cursor around and see all the information that is before you!


http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/01/06/business/20090106-comeback-graphic.html

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Thursday, January 29, 2009

Fiscal Policy runs amuck. I happily signed this statement.

Here is the statement:

www.funnyeconomist.com/stimulus.pdf

Fiscal Policy is great if you can fix bridges falling down over the Mississippi river. The problem is you get 25 dog parks and 17 bridges to nowhere for every one bridge you fix. Take 60 years of economic research and throw it down a rat hole.

Read what Robert Barro has to say about these things. He is correct.


Past recessions and what worked...three top economists recount history.

Listen to this and learn. Macro history in a nut shell.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/01/26/business/economy/20090126-recessions-graphic.html?hp

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Fiscal Stimulus? What stimulus?


There is a raging debate on line between Brad DeLong, Greg Mankiw, Eugene Fama and John Cochrane about the impact of fiscal policy and the likely result of fiscal stimulus.


My answer to the whole thing is, it doesn't matter. Read this and decide for yourself.


Joe Stiglitz gets it all wrong.


Oh yea, and the co-author Peter Orszag is the new Director of OMB. Let's hope he gets it going better in future endeavors.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Yes, she did say it.

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I have absolutely zero interest in debating the abortion issue. None. If you say "we won, the American people knew we were for this and we are going to fund it", that is the political process, and so be it. But equating abortion with economic stimulus is one of the more sickening things I have heard in some time.

Wanda gets it right....

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Recoveries are different now.


The graph at the top is a measure of unemployment that includes "discouraged workers" and also adjusts for part-time employment. We are not at the levels of misery experienced during the early 1980s, but we are gaining on it.
Look at the bottom graph. This shows the length of time it takes for employment to recover to pre-recession levels after the economy is disturbed. There it is for all to see. The last two recoveries we have had are unlike those of the post-WWII 20th century experience. Recoveries are now longer and more drawn out. So, let us hope the economy hits bottom soon. But even when we do...don't look for recovery to be swift and vigorous.

Monday, January 26, 2009

Current Recession in Historical Perspective.


Notice today versus the last 10 recessions we have had since 1945. The damage to unemployment was turning up by now even during the harshest recessions. Not today....Click on the link below for some more highly informative visuals of today versus the 10 recessions since 1945.



Friday, January 23, 2009

What are we waiting for? Either recapitalize banks or shut them NOW!


We are staring the "zombie bank phenomenon" right in the face...and we do nothing but float them along. Here are two really good pieces to read.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123258594265704581.html
And this one too, especially! Read these three pieces and FIND THE EXIT! It is right here on these pages!

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Submit to Sharia Law? R.I.P Randy Parker


The day Islamic law comes to the U.S. is the day you will all drink a toast to my memory. You'll toast with orange juice too since alcohol is forbidden.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123258473846504459.html

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Speaking before the National Speaker's Association/North Carolina Chapter

Here are two pictures of me speaking about the economy before a group of speaking professionals in Charlotte...the National Speaker's Association North Carolina Chapter. Great fun with a bunch of skilled professionals. Information, inspiration and a few laughs. That is what it is all about.

Why not have me come and speak to your group/association?

Inflation Targeting Dead? Not so fast there bub!


Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Sunday, January 18, 2009

Randy Parker Hall of Fame: Jackie Robinson



Here he is boys and girls. The Great One ... Jackie Robinson. He is forever on the top shelf of the Randy Parker Hall of Fame since he had the guts to go first and take the heat. He blazed the trail for all that followed. He did not complain, he did not trash talk. He just whipped you. I am no great fan of baseball, but Jackie Robinson was one tough SOB. So Jackie, say hi to my friend Ralph who is also in the Hall of Fame and of whom I have blogged about previously. I admire you both greatly.

Friday, January 16, 2009

Sobering Lessons of Economic History.


Ken Rogoff should not be ignored...but it is not pretty.

More Lessons from Economic History


1998 and the bailout of Long-Term Capital Management. How many hedge funds do you think would still be alive if not for withdrawal restrictions? Take away the cost of bad behavior and you fill the world with fools!


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/28/business/economy/28view.html

Thursday, January 15, 2009

My First Video BLOG! This is the first good piece of news I have come across!



From Greg Mankiw's Blog: At right is the TED spread. It is a measure of risk in the financial markets, the difference between interbank loans and T-bills and is now below 1%. This news could not be more pleasant!


I'm still not totally convinced, but this is serious reason for optimism.

And then there is this piece on how uncertainty is falling.

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/2785


I also read yesterday the commercial paper market is starting to unfreeze. This is great news.



video

You should be very worried whenever you hear any politician say we are going to spend our way out of our difficulties.

Fiscal Policy did not get us out of the Great Depression. It won't fix our problems now. Why? Because for every bridge we fix over the Mississippi that needs fixing and would help to stimulate the economy, there will be 17 dog parks in Anywhere, USA and 12 Bridges-to-Nowhere. You might as well pour money down a rat hole. Remember, these are the same angels that gave us the mess we are in with Fannie and Freddie. It is their fault. And now you are counting on them for your economic redemption. Please pass the valuim.

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Randy Parker Hall of Fame: Robert Lucas


This little gem from Nobel Prize winner Bob Lucas was published December 23 and slipped under the radar. This is really a great piece.

Nothing matters more than National Security.


If you can't tell me how you are going to protect me and my family first and foremost, then you really have nothing more to say that I am particularly interested in. The naming of Leon Panetta as CIA Chief has just put your butt on the firing line.

Do you really think it is just a coincidence that we have not been hit again in 7 years? I mean, really? OK ... sleep tight.

Monday, January 12, 2009

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Sunday, January 4, 2009

Friday, January 2, 2009

Randy Parker Hall of Fame: Lee Ohanian

This is my friend Lee Ohanian Ladies and Gentlemen. He is an economist at UCLA and one of the nicest guys you could ever hope to meet. Here he is in a panel discussion about the New Deal. If you want to learn from history, have a listen.

http://www.tvo.org/TVO/WebObjects/TVO.woa?video?TAWSP_Dbt_20081210_779387_0