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Monday, September 20, 2010

It's ended last June. Now, go back to looking for a job.

At 19 months from December 2007 until June 2009, that was the longest recession since, well, August 1929 until March 1933. Ending the recession is one thing. Recovery is quite another. Look at the attached graph. The humdinger recession of 1981-82 had employment return to the pre-recession peak 27 months after the recession started. Look at the recovery after the recession in 2001. It took 46 months to return to pre-recession employment. If we were to repeat that, full recovery would be on track for June 2013. I'm a betting man and I would not count on that if I were you. But I hope I'm wrong.

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