This is Jim Hamilton. He is an economist at the University of California at San Diego and has been most helpful, as always, in explaining what is going on. He is a most esteemed member of the Randy Parker Hall of Fame and the best macroeconomics scholar on the planet. Plus, you could not hope to meet a nicer guy (and that is a rare combination). Let me say it as plainly as I can. Read what he has to say and you know what to think. You can do that daily at http://www.econbrowser.com/. Don't eat or drink anything while you read the link below...you might choke.
This is a must read!