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Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Sunday OCTOBER 12th...Reality Check Part I: Lessons from Horse Race Gambling

Good morning. Rules become rules for a reason. It never hurtsw to go over and over them. So, we go back to work tomorrow and need to remember.....

Many of you have been clammoring for me to tell you all the rules of horse race gambling since I spilled #3: If you can't take the losses, don't bet.

Well now the good doctor is going to tell you the most important one by far. I can't leak them out all at once. They cost too much to learn myself. But here it is:

Horse race gambling rule #1: Do your handicapping for yourself.

That is, study the horses racing the day you are going to the track and trust your own analysis and choice making abilities. Don't rely on what you heard somebody say or the dreaded "common tout" who calls you over and says, "hey buddy, this horse is a sure winner, you got to get on it." Or they will say "your horse ain't got a chance in the world!" So you change your mind and the horse you got talked off of wins and pays $26.50. That is the surest way to be parted from your cash. Some stumble bum, broken down old horse player with a five-day beard, six teeth, and a hunch is going to determine your picks? No no! Don't fall for it.

So let me many of you are making your current investment decisions based on what you just heard on CNBC, or what Jim Cramer just said? "Ah ha! That is the piece of info I have been looking for! Sell, Sell, Sell!" Please understand I am not in the investment advice business with this blog. I am just asking you for some self-reflection. If this is how you are deciding to move your money, without any careful thoughts of your own, without doing your handicapping for yourself, then you are no better than some fool at the race track that bets the farm on the ranting of some stew bum common tout. Because that is what those talking heads on TV are. There is no difference here. And that is how you are managing your money. Like a fool.

I don't want to be too hard on anyone. But go through the above reality check to see if you fit. If you do, you are playing a very dangerous game that you are going to lose.

And if you see that broken down old horse player with a five-day old beard and six teeth at the track...tell my brother I said hi.


derek pszenny said...

See my comments on the DIPUTS posting about Jim Cramer and also look at the other comment regarding Obamas fiscal policy on cap gains and dividends...BO fiscal policy stinks but he certainly cant come out and say that he was wrong about the failed Bush economic policies even if it is for the best. Ecom 101 dont raise taxes in a recesion. Just look at what happend to big George in '92...

Anonymous said...

It is amazing to me that anyone is listening to Jim Cramer to figure out what to do. Review this and decide for yourself.