We are in a recession! The only questions are how deep and how long.

Once again the talking heads are at it. The folks on CNBC are saying they wonder if all of this bail out stuff has been done fast enough to avert a recession. Ah, too late there boys. James Hamilton (http://www.econbrowser.com/) is on record as saying he thinks the recession started last December. That would put us at 11 months right now if you think he is right (I am a gambler and I know where my $$$ is). The average post-WWII recession has lasted 11 months. The recession of 1981-82 lasted 16 months and was the worst downturn since the Great Depression. The recessions of July 1990 - March 19991 and March 2001 - November 2001 were both short but had the longest most drawn-out recoveries in the 20th century history of the business cycle. Now we are looking at a recession in the midst of truck loads of financial goop with credit markets doing their impersonation of a cigar store indian together with the prospect of a long stretched-out recovery.

Please don't get excited here folks looking for a quick exit from this fever swamp nor a return of the elevator to the top floor again quickly. History says you would be wrong.